The peak wind gust risk assesses short-duration intense wind events (gusts) that can damage structures and crops. It starts from the daily gusts observed in recent years, projected into the future following the trend of the mean wind in the climate models, counting each year the days with gale-force gusts. The more gale days, the higher the risk.
Indicator. Projected number of days/year with a gale gust (gale, ≥ 17.2 m/s, Beaufort 8); the storm threshold (storm, ≥ 24.5 m/s, Beaufort 10) is also recorded.
Data. Daily maximum gusts (wind_gusts_10m_max) from the ERA5 reanalysis (2015–2025) via the Open-Meteo Archive API; annual mean wind sfcWind CMIP6 (same tiles used by the wind risk). Scenarios: SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5.
Calculation.
(1) From the ERA5 gusts 2015–2025 (converted km/h → m/s) the days/year with a gust ≥ 17.2 m/s (gale) and ≥ 24.5 m/s (storm) are counted, averaged over the 11 years; the maximum gust is also recorded.
(2) For each scenario/year a CMIP6 ratio = mean wind(scenario, year) / mean wind(scenario, 2026) is computed.
(3) The gale days, storm days and maximum gust are projected by multiplying them by this ratio.
(4) The projected number of gale days per year is classified.
Thresholds → level A–F.
• Based on projected gale days/year: F: ≥35
• E: ≥20
• D: ≥10
• C: ≥5
• B: ≥1
• A: 0.
From physical to impact. The physical level (A–F) is combined with the production process's sensitivity through the 5×5 risk matrix → impact level; the damage curve converts the level into a damage factor, from which the economic value at risk is derived.
Sources.
• ERA5 (reanalysis) via the Open-Meteo Archive API
• sfcWind CMIP6 from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)
• Beaufort scale (gale/storm thresholds).