The biodiversity loss risk estimates how multiple environmental pressures threaten the site's ecosystem together. It is computed by combining three factors: climate stress, land-use impact and nitrogen pollution; when the land-cover map (CLC) is available for the site, a Mean Species Abundance (MSA) score is added. The higher the combined pressure, the higher the risk.
Indicator. Biodiversity Loss Risk Score (BLRS) / final score, dimensionless (0–1). The MSA model is a simplified proprietary approximation, not the full GLOBIO model.
Data. Five future datasets per SSP scenario: land use (Natural/Cropland/Pastureland/Urban fractions, LUH2), nitrogen deposition (NOy and NHx), daily near-surface air temperature, daily precipitation, Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), all from Copernicus CDS or derived. In addition, when roi_id and ca_id are available, the site's current CLC land cover from the DB, used for the MSA sub-score. Scenarios: SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5.
Calculation. Three scores are combined. (A) Climate Stress Score (CSS) = equal-weight mean of 5 normalised anomalies (annual mean temperature, temperature of the warmest month, heat-wave duration/WSDI, annual precipitation, dry-spell duration). (B) Land Use Impact Score (LUIS) = 0.8 × Cropland + 0.6 × Pastureland + 1.0 × Urban + 0.0 × Natural. (C) Pollution Score (PS) = excess of nitrogen deposition over the local critical load CL (CL = weighted mean between 10 kg ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for pasture and 5 for natural), capped at 0–1. Every future quantity (temperature, heatwaves, precipitation, dry spells, land use, nitrogen deposition) is the 20-year moving average centred on the year: a single year simulated by a climate model is not a forecast of that year. BLRS = 0.4 × CSS + 0.4 × LUIS + 0.2 × PS. MSA sub-score (only with the site's CLC data): combines MSA from land use and MSA from climate change (temperature reference 1941–1961). Final score = geometric mean of BLRS and MSA_score if available, otherwise BLRS. Thresholds on the final score are applied for the level 0–5.
Thresholds → level A–F.
• F: > 0.85
• E: > 0.70
• D: > 0.50
• C: > 0.30
• B: > 0.15
• A: ≤ 0.15.
The weights (0.4 / 0.4 / 0.2 among the three scores, 0.2 for each climate anomaly), the land use intensity scores (0.8 / 0.6 / 1.0 / 0), the nitrogen critical loads (10 and 5 kg/ha per year), the saturations (+4 °C for temperatures, +30 days for dry spells) and the thresholds from 0.15 to 0.85 are xNatura choices without a published source.
From physical to impact. The physical level (A–F) is combined with the production process's sensitivity through the risk matrix (6 physical levels by 5 sensitivity bands) → impact level.
Economic damage. Version 2026, xNatura estimate: 0 €. No published method estimates the loss of a single site from the biodiversity loss around it: the existing euro estimates are by country and sector (Johnson et al. 2021, World Bank; Ranger et al. 2023, NGFS) and measure how much of the economy depends on nature; without the likelihood that a nature service degrades in the country, which is not published as data, they would give only a theoretical ceiling, the same for a site in class C and in class F. The standards acknowledge it too: TNFD assesses these risks as dependencies and materiality, and the ESRS (E4-6) allow, in the first years, a qualitative description of the anticipated financial effects. The dependencies of the processes on nature's services (ENCORE) are in the site's dedicated section. Version 2025 turned the impact level into a value at risk with a damage factor per class without a published source, and it is no longer used.
Sources.
• [Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)](Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS))
• [Land-Use Harmonization Dataset (LUH2)](Land-Use Harmonization Dataset (LUH2))
• [Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)](Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP))
• [Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services](Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services)
• [Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6](Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6)
• [GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss](GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss) (conceptual inspiration: the code uses a simplified MSA approximation, not the full GLOBIO).
• [Johnson et al. 2021, The Economic Case for Nature (World Bank)](Johnson et al. 2021, The Economic Case for Nature (World Bank))
• [Ranger et al. 2023, The Green Scorpion: the Macro-Criticality of Nature for Finance (Oxford-NGFS)](Ranger et al. 2023, The Green Scorpion: the Macro-Criticality of Nature for Finance (Oxford-NGFS)).
Indicator. Biodiversity Loss Risk Score (BLRS) / final score, dimensionless (0–1). The MSA model is a simplified proprietary approximation, not the full GLOBIO model.
Data. Five future datasets per SSP scenario: land use (Natural/Cropland/Pastureland/Urban fractions, LUH2), nitrogen deposition (NOy and NHx), daily near-surface air temperature, daily precipitation, Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), all from Copernicus CDS or derived. In addition, when roi_id and ca_id are available, the site's current CLC land cover from the DB, used for the MSA sub-score. Scenarios: SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5.
Calculation. Three scores are combined. (A) Climate Stress Score (CSS) = equal-weight mean of 5 normalised anomalies (annual mean temperature, temperature of the warmest month, heat-wave duration/WSDI, annual precipitation, dry-spell duration). (B) Land Use Impact Score (LUIS) = 0.8 × Cropland + 0.6 × Pastureland + 1.0 × Urban + 0.0 × Natural. (C) Pollution Score (PS) = excess of nitrogen deposition over the local critical load CL (CL = weighted mean between 10 kg ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for pasture and 5 for natural), capped at 0–1. Every future quantity (temperature, heatwaves, precipitation, dry spells, land use, nitrogen deposition) is the 20-year moving average centred on the year: a single year simulated by a climate model is not a forecast of that year. BLRS = 0.4 × CSS + 0.4 × LUIS + 0.2 × PS. MSA sub-score (only with the site's CLC data): combines MSA from land use and MSA from climate change (temperature reference 1941–1961). Final score = geometric mean of BLRS and MSA_score if available, otherwise BLRS. Thresholds on the final score are applied for the level 0–5.
Thresholds → level A–F.
• F: > 0.85
• E: > 0.70
• D: > 0.50
• C: > 0.30
• B: > 0.15
• A: ≤ 0.15.
The weights (0.4 / 0.4 / 0.2 among the three scores, 0.2 for each climate anomaly), the land use intensity scores (0.8 / 0.6 / 1.0 / 0), the nitrogen critical loads (10 and 5 kg/ha per year), the saturations (+4 °C for temperatures, +30 days for dry spells) and the thresholds from 0.15 to 0.85 are xNatura choices without a published source.
From physical to impact. The physical level (A–F) is combined with the production process's sensitivity through the risk matrix (6 physical levels by 5 sensitivity bands) → impact level.
Economic damage. Version 2026, xNatura estimate: 0 €. No published method estimates the loss of a single site from the biodiversity loss around it: the existing euro estimates are by country and sector (Johnson et al. 2021, World Bank; Ranger et al. 2023, NGFS) and measure how much of the economy depends on nature; without the likelihood that a nature service degrades in the country, which is not published as data, they would give only a theoretical ceiling, the same for a site in class C and in class F. The standards acknowledge it too: TNFD assesses these risks as dependencies and materiality, and the ESRS (E4-6) allow, in the first years, a qualitative description of the anticipated financial effects. The dependencies of the processes on nature's services (ENCORE) are in the site's dedicated section. Version 2025 turned the impact level into a value at risk with a damage factor per class without a published source, and it is no longer used.
Sources.
• [Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)](Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS))
• [Land-Use Harmonization Dataset (LUH2)](Land-Use Harmonization Dataset (LUH2))
• [Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)](Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP))
• [Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services](Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services)
• [Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6](Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6)
• [GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss](GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss) (conceptual inspiration: the code uses a simplified MSA approximation, not the full GLOBIO).
• [Johnson et al. 2021, The Economic Case for Nature (World Bank)](Johnson et al. 2021, The Economic Case for Nature (World Bank))
• [Ranger et al. 2023, The Green Scorpion: the Macro-Criticality of Nature for Finance (Oxford-NGFS)](Ranger et al. 2023, The Green Scorpion: the Macro-Criticality of Nature for Finance (Oxford-NGFS)).