To calculate Biodiversity Loss Risk, we use the following variables:
Biodiversity Loss Risk is an integrated analysis assessing how multiple environmental pressures interact to threaten ecosystems. The model is based on three main 'pressure factors' (drivers), which are combined to create an overall risk score.
The three environmental pressure factors are:
Climate Stress Score (CSS): Measures local climate change intensity. Calculated as mean of future anomalies relative to historical reference values of five key indicators: Annual Mean Temperature (MAT), Hottest Month Mean Temperature (HMM), Total Heat Wave Days (HD), Total Annual Precipitation (TAP), Maximum Dry Period Duration (MDS).
Land Use Impact Score (LUIS): Quantifies pressure exerted by human activities on landscape. Calculated as weighted sum of different land use categories, where greater weights are assigned to most damaging uses for biodiversity.
Pollution Score (PS): Assesses pollution impact, focusing on nitrogen deposition (summing NOy and NHx components). Score measures how much future deposition () exceeds local 'critical load' (CL).
Risk Calculation Methodology
BLRS Calculation: The three pressure factor scores are combined into a single Biodiversity Loss Risk Score (BLRS), through weighted sum:
MSA Integration: if for the analyzed site current Land Cover map has been generated on XNatura platform, an MSA Score (MSAS) is also calculated. This score is based on Mean Species Abundance parameters from Land Use () and from climate change ().
The final score determining risk level is geometric mean between BLRS and MSAS (or only BLRS, if MSAS is not calculated). This approach combines assessment of general environmental pressures (BLRS) with a specific model on ecosystem integrity (MSA).
The methodology described for Biodiversity Loss Risk assessment is a comprehensive integrated assessment model. It represents scientific state of the art because it doesn't limit itself to a single factor, but models synergistic interaction between main drivers of biodiversity loss identified by the global scientific community.
Our approach, based on combination of climate change, land use and pollution, is a direct application of conceptual framework developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), IPCC's equivalent body for biodiversity.
Our methodology uses projection datasets and impact models that are standard in global change research community.
The heart of our methodology is a direct application of principles and components of GLOBIO model, one of world's most used models for assessing human impact on biodiversity.
In conclusion, our methodology represents high scientific level risk analysis. It is founded on IPBES conceptual framework, uses standard projection datasets (LUH2, ISIMIP) and implements calculation logic aligned with most globally recognized biodiversity impact model (GLOBIO).
The methodology described for Biodiversity Loss Risk assessment is a comprehensive integrated assessment model. It represents scientific state of the art because it doesn't limit itself to a single factor, but models synergistic interaction between main drivers of biodiversity loss identified by the global scientific community.
Our approach, based on combination of climate change, land use and pollution, is a direct application of conceptual framework developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), IPCC's equivalent body for biodiversity. • Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services — This global reference report identifies and classifies the five main direct drivers of biodiversity loss. The pressure factors we consider (Climate, Land Use, Pollution) are three of these five.
Our methodology uses projection datasets and impact models that are standard in global change research community. • Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850-2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6 — Describes the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset, the reference land use projection dataset used in all CMIP6 climate models. • Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) — A scientific framework providing coherent climate change impact projections.
The heart of our methodology is a direct application of principles and components of GLOBIO model, one of world's most used models for assessing human impact on biodiversity. • GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss — GLOBIO calculates Mean Species Abundance (MSA), estimating mean abundance of native species in an area compared to undisturbed ecosystem.
In conclusion, our methodology represents high scientific level risk analysis. It is founded on IPBES conceptual framework, uses standard projection datasets (LUH2, ISIMIP) and implements calculation logic aligned with most globally recognized biodiversity impact model (GLOBIO).