The air quality risk estimates the impact of atmospheric pollution on health near the asset, using as a direct indicator the premature mortality rate attributable to air quality (deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year). Unlike other risks it is not based on weather indices, but on absolute mortality thresholds: the higher the rate, the higher the risk. The euro amount does not come from mortality but from the days with PM2.5 above 25 µg/m³ (OECD 2025, Table 8).
Indicator. Premature mortality rate attributable to air quality (aqdr), in deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year.
Data. Two published sources. In Europe (EU27, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) E. Pisoni et al. 2025: the site takes the value of its own NUTS3 region directly (1,364 regions, years 2015, 2050 and 2100) or, if it lies on the coast just outside the boundary, that of the nearest region within about 5 km. Reading the region keeps a site near a border from taking the value of the neighbouring region. In the rest of the world, in the European countries Pisoni does not cover and on the islands of Åland and Gozo, where the model gives zero deaths, a dataset built by xNatura on a 1° grid is used: H. Yue et al. 2024 (years 2015, 2030 and 2050) outside Europe, Pisoni in Europe, one source per cell. There the site value is bilinearly interpolated between the four grid points around it, weighted by distance; points without data (sea) are left out and the weights renormalized over the others; if none of the four has data, as on small islands, the nearest point with data is used. In every case intermediate years are linearly interpolated between the published years and, after the last available year, the value is held constant (outside Europe from 2050 onwards); areas without data are not filled with zero. Scenarios: SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5.
Calculation.
(1) The projected aqdr value for the location and the year is read.
(2) Fixed thresholds [10, 50, 100, 200] are applied: if the value is 0 → level 0; otherwise the first threshold ≥ value is found → level 1–4; if > 200 → level 5.
Thresholds → level A–F.
• A: = 0
• B: > 0–10
• C: > 10–50
• D: > 50–100
• E: > 100–200
• F: > 200 (deaths/100,000/year).
From physical to impact. The physical level (A–F) is combined with the production process's sensitivity through the risk matrix (6 physical levels by 5 sensitivity bands) → impact level. The euro amount of this risk is the one described in the "Production damage" paragraph (Version 2026): the damage factor per class of Version 2025 is no longer used for this risk.
Production damage. Polluted air does not damage the building but lowers the productivity of the people who work: the value added lost is estimated, in euro per employee per year (multiplied by the site's employees). Basis: "xNatura estimate", because a European coefficient is applied to every site.
• Days of heavily polluted air: mean 2015-2024 of the days a year with daily mean PM2.5 above 25 µg/m³ (WHO 2021 interim target 4). The day-to-day pattern comes from the Copernicus CAMS EAC4 reanalysis, the one the study counts the days on (Inness et al. 2019, cells of about 80 km); the level comes from the site: every daily value is multiplied by the ratio between the site's 2020-2024 mean PM2.5 in the ACAG satellite maps (1 km, calibrated on ground stations, Shen et al. 2024) and that of the CAMS cell (linear scaling, Teutschbein and Seibert 2012). In Europe the two are close; in Asia CAMS is much higher (7 times in Hong Kong) and, uncorrected, would count almost every day of the year.
• Effect: -0.017% of value added per worker for each day a year above 25 µg/m³ (OECD 2025, Dechezleprêtre and Vienne, Table 8, 2.5 million European firms), so share lost = 1 - exp(-0.00017 × days). The study finds the effect comes from these days and sees none for days above 15 µg/m³: so no xNatura threshold or cap is needed.
• Euro: share lost × yearly value added per employed person of the country and sector of the site's production processes, as for the production damage of heat stress (Eurostat in Europe, World Bank and ILO outside).
• Future: for now today's air in every scenario and year; projections from climate models (CMIP6) are the next step.
The class stays on premature mortality, the euro comes from the days above 25 µg/m³: the two can differ.
Sources.
• [E. Pisoni et al. 2025](E. Pisoni et al. 2025)
• [H. Yue et al. 2024](H. Yue et al. 2024)
• [Global Burden of Disease (GBD)](Global Burden of Disease (GBD))
• [Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Compare Data Visualization Tool](Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Compare Data Visualization Tool)
• [Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability](Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability)
• [Shen et al. 2024, ACAG satellite-derived surface PM2.5 (V6.GL)](Shen et al. 2024, ACAG satellite-derived surface PM2.5 (V6.GL))
• [Inness et al. 2019, CAMS global reanalysis (EAC4)](Inness et al. 2019, CAMS global reanalysis (EAC4))
• [Teutschbein and Seibert 2012, Bias correction of regional climate model simulations](Teutschbein and Seibert 2012, Bias correction of regional climate model simulations)
• [Dechezleprêtre and Vienne 2025, The impact of air pollution on labour productivity (OECD)](Dechezleprêtre and Vienne 2025, The impact of air pollution on labour productivity (OECD))
• [WHO 2021, Global air quality guidelines](WHO 2021, Global air quality guidelines)
• [Eurostat, national accounts by industry (nama_10_a64)](Eurostat, national accounts by industry (nama_10_a64))
• [World Bank, gross value added at basic prices](World Bank, gross value added at basic prices)
• [ILOSTAT, employment (ILO modelled estimates)](ILOSTAT, employment (ILO modelled estimates)). (European cells use Pisoni et al. 2025, all others Yue et al. 2024. GBD and WHO are the reference for the mortality thresholds.) Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
Indicator. Premature mortality rate attributable to air quality (aqdr), in deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year.
Data. Two published sources. In Europe (EU27, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) E. Pisoni et al. 2025: the site takes the value of its own NUTS3 region directly (1,364 regions, years 2015, 2050 and 2100) or, if it lies on the coast just outside the boundary, that of the nearest region within about 5 km. Reading the region keeps a site near a border from taking the value of the neighbouring region. In the rest of the world, in the European countries Pisoni does not cover and on the islands of Åland and Gozo, where the model gives zero deaths, a dataset built by xNatura on a 1° grid is used: H. Yue et al. 2024 (years 2015, 2030 and 2050) outside Europe, Pisoni in Europe, one source per cell. There the site value is bilinearly interpolated between the four grid points around it, weighted by distance; points without data (sea) are left out and the weights renormalized over the others; if none of the four has data, as on small islands, the nearest point with data is used. In every case intermediate years are linearly interpolated between the published years and, after the last available year, the value is held constant (outside Europe from 2050 onwards); areas without data are not filled with zero. Scenarios: SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 / SSP5-8.5.
Calculation.
(1) The projected aqdr value for the location and the year is read.
(2) Fixed thresholds [10, 50, 100, 200] are applied: if the value is 0 → level 0; otherwise the first threshold ≥ value is found → level 1–4; if > 200 → level 5.
Thresholds → level A–F.
• A: = 0
• B: > 0–10
• C: > 10–50
• D: > 50–100
• E: > 100–200
• F: > 200 (deaths/100,000/year).
From physical to impact. The physical level (A–F) is combined with the production process's sensitivity through the risk matrix (6 physical levels by 5 sensitivity bands) → impact level. The euro amount of this risk is the one described in the "Production damage" paragraph (Version 2026): the damage factor per class of Version 2025 is no longer used for this risk.
Production damage. Polluted air does not damage the building but lowers the productivity of the people who work: the value added lost is estimated, in euro per employee per year (multiplied by the site's employees). Basis: "xNatura estimate", because a European coefficient is applied to every site.
• Days of heavily polluted air: mean 2015-2024 of the days a year with daily mean PM2.5 above 25 µg/m³ (WHO 2021 interim target 4). The day-to-day pattern comes from the Copernicus CAMS EAC4 reanalysis, the one the study counts the days on (Inness et al. 2019, cells of about 80 km); the level comes from the site: every daily value is multiplied by the ratio between the site's 2020-2024 mean PM2.5 in the ACAG satellite maps (1 km, calibrated on ground stations, Shen et al. 2024) and that of the CAMS cell (linear scaling, Teutschbein and Seibert 2012). In Europe the two are close; in Asia CAMS is much higher (7 times in Hong Kong) and, uncorrected, would count almost every day of the year.
• Effect: -0.017% of value added per worker for each day a year above 25 µg/m³ (OECD 2025, Dechezleprêtre and Vienne, Table 8, 2.5 million European firms), so share lost = 1 - exp(-0.00017 × days). The study finds the effect comes from these days and sees none for days above 15 µg/m³: so no xNatura threshold or cap is needed.
• Euro: share lost × yearly value added per employed person of the country and sector of the site's production processes, as for the production damage of heat stress (Eurostat in Europe, World Bank and ILO outside).
• Future: for now today's air in every scenario and year; projections from climate models (CMIP6) are the next step.
The class stays on premature mortality, the euro comes from the days above 25 µg/m³: the two can differ.
Sources.
• [E. Pisoni et al. 2025](E. Pisoni et al. 2025)
• [H. Yue et al. 2024](H. Yue et al. 2024)
• [Global Burden of Disease (GBD)](Global Burden of Disease (GBD))
• [Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Compare Data Visualization Tool](Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Compare Data Visualization Tool)
• [Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability](Global Health Estimates: Life expectancy and leading causes of death and disability)
• [Shen et al. 2024, ACAG satellite-derived surface PM2.5 (V6.GL)](Shen et al. 2024, ACAG satellite-derived surface PM2.5 (V6.GL))
• [Inness et al. 2019, CAMS global reanalysis (EAC4)](Inness et al. 2019, CAMS global reanalysis (EAC4))
• [Teutschbein and Seibert 2012, Bias correction of regional climate model simulations](Teutschbein and Seibert 2012, Bias correction of regional climate model simulations)
• [Dechezleprêtre and Vienne 2025, The impact of air pollution on labour productivity (OECD)](Dechezleprêtre and Vienne 2025, The impact of air pollution on labour productivity (OECD))
• [WHO 2021, Global air quality guidelines](WHO 2021, Global air quality guidelines)
• [Eurostat, national accounts by industry (nama_10_a64)](Eurostat, national accounts by industry (nama_10_a64))
• [World Bank, gross value added at basic prices](World Bank, gross value added at basic prices)
• [ILOSTAT, employment (ILO modelled estimates)](ILOSTAT, employment (ILO modelled estimates)). (European cells use Pisoni et al. 2025, all others Yue et al. 2024. GBD and WHO are the reference for the mortality thresholds.) Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.