Future Water Risk provides projections of how water risk may evolve under different climate scenarios, using the same WRI Aqueduct framework adopted for the Present Water Risk indicator. Unlike the present indicator — which reflects observed conditions — this KPI shows how key water risk metrics may change in the medium-to-long term in response to projected climate change.
Projections are based on internationally recognised climate scenarios (RCP/SSP) and allow evaluation of the trajectory of water risk for a specific geographic area, supporting strategic adaptation and water resource management decisions.
The projected indicators cover six dimensions of future water risk:
| Indicator | Description | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Water stress | Projected ratio of total water demand to available renewable water resources | — |
| Seasonal variability | Projected within-year variations in water availability | — |
| Water availability | Projected renewable water resources expected to be available | cm |
| Water demand | Projected total water demand (domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock) | cm |
| Interannual variability | Projected year-to-year variations in water availability | — |
| Water exploitation | Projected ratio of total water consumption to available renewable resources | — |
For each indicator, projections are computed under three differentiated climate scenarios:
Future water risk values are derived from the WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas — Future Projections (Hofste et al., 2019; Gassert et al., 2014), which extends the present-day dataset with multi-scenario projections for three future time horizons: 2030, 2050, and 2080.
For each combination of indicator, scenario, and year, the model returns a projected value representing how that dimension of water risk is expected to change. Each value is classified into a quality grade (A through E) based on indicator-specific ranges.
Data are provided at sub-watershed basin level with global coverage.
Line Chart. An area/line chart in the right panel of the "Water Risk" card, showing future projections for the selected indicator and scenario.
Purpose: Answers the question: "How will water risk change at this site in 2030, 2050, and 2080 under the selected climate scenario?"
Description: The panel is positioned to the right of the "Water Risk - Present" panel within the same card. The user sees two stacked selectors:
The chart displays the time series for the selected combination: X-axis = projection year (2030, 2050, 2080), Y-axis = indicator value. Each data point is colored based on risk severity according to the indicator's ranges: warmer colors (orange, red) indicate higher risk; cooler colors (green) indicate lower risk. A tooltip shows the exact value on hover.
How it's calculated: For each combination (indicator, scenario, year), the projected value is retrieved from the WRI Aqueduct Future Projections model. The color of each point is determined by matching the value against the indicator's quality ranges. Data generation is triggered on explicit user request (the "Generate data" button — same flow as Present Water Risk).
Note: This indicator is inverted — lower values indicate better conditions. The only exception is Water availability, where higher values indicate greater availability and therefore better conditions.
Legend: The color legend is visible inside the card's tooltip modal (information icon). Each indicator has its own ranges. For example, Water stress uses:
| Level | Range (Water stress, %) | Color | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 0 – 10 | ■ #00A67A | Very low future risk — water conditions stable or improving |
| B | 10 – 20 | ■ #00DF80 | Low future risk — slight increase expected, resilience maintained |
| C | 20 – 40 | ■ #FFD21E | Medium future risk — moderate deterioration expected |
| D | 40 – 80 | ■ #FF8B16 | High future risk — water risk significantly increasing |
| E | 80 – 100 | ■ #FF367F | Very high future risk — water crisis projected |
Ranges differ for each of the 6 indicators — the same A–E logic applies to each.
Interpretation example:
If the chart shows that Water Stress under the Pessimistic scenario rises from 18% (2030) to 42% (2050) to 85% (2080), it means that competition for water resources at this site is set to increase dramatically — transitioning from grade B (low risk) to D (high risk) to E (critical risk) over 50 years.
| Source | Provider | Coverage | Resolution | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas — Future Projections | WRI (World Resources Institute) | Global | Sub-watershed basin level | Projections for 2030, 2050, 2080 |
The future projections are generated by the WRI Aqueduct model, which combines global climate model (GCM) outputs with hydrological simulations under standardised emission scenarios (RCP/SSP). For each of the six indicators, projections are computed at sub-watershed scale for three time horizons (2030, 2050, 2080) and three scenarios (Optimistic / RCP 4.5-SSP2, Business as Usual / SSP2, Pessimistic / RCP 8.5-SSP5).
The projected value for each combination is classified into five quality levels (A through E) using indicator-specific range boundaries. The boundaries differ across the six indicators:
| Indicator | Unit | Range boundaries (A–E) | Inverted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water stress | % | 0, 10, 20, 40, 80, 100 | Yes |
| Seasonal variability | — | 0, 0.33, 0.66, 1, 1.33, 2 | Yes |
| Water availability | cm | 0, 3, 20, 60, 500, 1000 | No |
| Water demand | cm | 0, 1, 3, 10, 30, 100 | Yes |
| Interannual variability | — | 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1, 2 | Yes |
| Water exploitation | % | 0, 5, 25, 50, 75, 100 | Yes |
For inverted indicators, lower values indicate better conditions. Water availability is the only non-inverted indicator: higher values indicate greater availability and therefore better conditions.
Data are generated on demand when the user clicks "Generate data" in the card interface.