Future Climate Trend

Future Climate Trend

Overview

Future Climate Trend presents daily projections of 13 climatic variables for a site up to five years ahead, computed from an ensemble of 7 CMIP6 HighResMIP global climate models accessed via the Open-Meteo Climate API. For variables such as temperature, wind speed, and humidity, the platform shows three lines per chart -- projected daily minimum, mean, and maximum -- giving users a sense of both the expected trend and the daily variability range. Accumulation variables (rainfall, snowfall, evapotranspiration, solar radiation, soil moisture) show a single daily value.

This KPI is a parent visualization covering 13 sub-variables selectable via a dropdown. There is no A--E quality grade -- the chart is purely for ecological and climate planning context, helping site managers understand what local conditions may look like over the near-term future. Data must be generated on demand (month by month) before the chart can be displayed.

The underlying climate models -- CMCC-CM2-VHR4, FGOALS-f3-H, HiRAM-SIT-HR, MRI-AGCM3-2-S, EC-Earth3P-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-XR, and NICAM16-8S -- are all part of the CMIP6 HighResMIP protocol, selected for their high spatial resolution (~10--25 km). Each model incorporates one or more Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario; the platform returns the ensemble mean across all models with valid data for each day.

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Calculation Methodology

The ensemble mean for each day is computed by averaging the projected values from all models that have valid data on that day:

$$\text{Ensemble mean}_{d} = \frac{1}{N_{d}} \sum_{i=1}^{N_{d}} \text{model value}_{i,d}$$

where $N_{d}$ = number of models with valid data on day $d$

The Open-Meteo Climate Change API returns daily projected values for each site's geographic coordinates, queried per variable and date range. For variables with min/max support (temperature, wind speed, humidity), the minimum and maximum across models are also stored. The ensemble mean is displayed as the primary value.

Data are sourced from the Open-Meteo Climate Change API (CMIP6 HighResMIP ensemble) with a spatial resolution of approximately 10--25 km, depending on the model. Projections extend from around 2020 to 2050 and beyond, depending on the model.

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What You See on the Platform

Assessment > Microclimate > "Future climate trend" (Line Chart)

Line Chart. A multi-line time series chart showing projected daily climate values for the selected variable over a user-defined date range, with variable-colored lines for mean, minimum, and maximum.

Purpose: To help site managers understand how a specific climate variable (temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, etc.) is projected to evolve over the coming months or years, so they can plan biodiversity management activities accordingly.

Description: The chart appears in a card in the Microclimate section of the Site Assessment, below the Climate Change gauge. The card header shows the title "Future climate trend" with a chart icon and the E1 topic badge. In the action bar, a variable selector dropdown allows choosing among 13 variables (default: Temperature). A calendar icon triggers a date range picker to filter the displayed period (minimum: reference year start; maximum: 5 years from today). For users with editing rights, an "Add data" button opens a month picker dialog to request data generation for additional months.

Below the header, a text line shows the selected period (e.g., "1 January 2026 -- 1 January 2031"). A statistics bar shows the minimum, mean, and maximum values across the entire selected period in the variable's unit. When the selected variable has min/max support, a legend row shows the three line styles: dashed (minimum), solid (mean), long-dash (maximum).

The chart area renders the time series lines. Each day is one data point. For variables with min/max, the area between min and max lines may be filled with a light tint. The Y-axis shows value labels; the X-axis shows dates. Line colors are determined by variable-specific value ranges.

If no data has been generated yet, an empty state is shown with a cloud-off icon and explanatory text. Editors see an additional "Generate data" button with a download icon to initiate data generation.

How it's calculated: Each plotted point represents the ensemble mean of up to 7 CMIP6 models for that specific day. For variables with min/max, the minimum and maximum across models are also plotted. The statistics (min, mean, max) in the summary bar are the period-level aggregation of all daily values. Color ranges are variable-specific and provided alongside the data.

Legend: Line style legend (shown when the selected variable supports min/max):

The tooltip (accessible via the info icon) shows a variable-specific description and a color-coded value range legend for the selected variable.

SSP Scenarios (embedded in models):

Note: SSP scenario selection is not a runtime parameter -- the models have built-in scenarios. The ensemble average represents a blend of scenarios across the 7 models.

Interpretation example:

If the Temperature chart shows a mean line rising from 12 °C in January to 28 °C in July 2027, with min and max lines forming a band of roughly ±5 °C around the mean, the site can expect a Mediterranean-style seasonal pattern with moderate model agreement. A narrow min-max band indicates high model consensus; a wide band indicates greater uncertainty across models.

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