Potenziale Non Realizzato - Carbonio Organico del Suolo (SOC)

Land Usev08.00 credits/per_km2

Responsible:Niccolò Calandri

Unrealized Potential — Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)

Overview

The Unrealized Potential — Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) layer quantifies the additional carbon that could accumulate in the top 30 cm of soil if the land were restored to native vegetation cover, expressed in tC/ha. Soil carbon accumulation occurs through increased organic matter inputs from root turnover, leaf litter, and microbial biomass under restored vegetation.

Unlike biomass carbon that can be gained relatively quickly through tree growth, soil carbon accumulation is a slow process spanning decades to centuries. However, SOC gains are more permanent — once built up, soil carbon persists longer than above-ground biomass carbon, which is vulnerable to fire, storms, and logging.

SOC unrealized potential is particularly high in:

Degraded agricultural soils — where intensive tillage has depleted organic carbon
Deforested areas — where loss of litter inputs has reduced soil carbon
Overgrazed grasslands — where root biomass and soil structure have been damaged

Calculation Methodology

Baseline extraction — Walker et al. 2022 unrealized SOC potential raster from S3
Feature engineering — NDVI, land cover, elevation
Random Forest downscaling to ~200 m

Output unit: tC/ha (additional SOC achievable in top 30 cm)

Data Sources

Code	Name	Provider	Type	Coverage	Resolution	Reference Year
Walker 2022	Unrealized Potential (SOC)	Walker et al. / S3	Raster (COG)	Global	~300 m	2016
`COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED`	Sentinel-2 L2A	ESA/Copernicus	Multispectral	Global	10 m	2017 — present
`GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1`	Dynamic World	Google/WRI	Land cover	Global	10 m	2015 — present
`USGS/SRTMGL1_003`	SRTM DEM	NASA/USGS	Elevation	60N-56S	30 m	2000

Quality Range and Levels

Indicator	Unit	Range	Inverted
`carbon_stock_unrealized_potential_soc`	tC/ha	[0, 5, 15, 40, 80, 150]	No

Level	Thresholds	Interpretation
E (Very Low)	< 5 tC/ha	Soil near natural SOC capacity
D (Low)	5-15 tC/ha	Minor SOC gain possible through improved management
C (Moderate)	15-40 tC/ha	Significant SOC buildup achievable
B (High)	40-80 tC/ha	Heavily depleted soils with high restoration potential
A (Very High)	> 80 tC/ha	Severely degraded soils — maximum SOC recovery potential

Technical Notes

SOC accumulation is much slower than biomass carbon gains (decades vs. years)
Once restored, SOC is more persistent than biomass carbon
Regenerative agricultural practices can partially realize SOC potential without full rewilding
SOC unrealized potential estimates assume full restoration to native vegetation

References

Walker, W.S. et al. (2022). PNAS, 119(23), e2111312119.
Spawn, S.A. et al. (2020). Scientific Data, 7, Article 112.
Breiman, L. (2001). "Random Forests". Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32.

Data Sources & References

Sources

WRD_CARBN_22

Methodology

Il layer Potenziale Non Realizzato - SOC quantifica il carbonio aggiuntivo che potrebbe accumularsi nei primi 30 cm di suolo se il terreno fosse ripristinato alla copertura vegetale nativa, secondo Walker et al. (2022). L'accumulo di SOC avviene attraverso l'aumento degli apporti di materia organica da turnover radicale, lettiera e biomassa microbica. Il processo e lento (decenni-secoli) ma i guadagni sono piu permanenti del carbonio della biomassa. Il raster viene raffinato tramite Random Forest con NDVI, copertura del suolo ed elevazione. Suoli agricoli degradati e aree deforestate mostrano il potenziale SOC piu elevato. Output in tC/ha.