Potenziale Non Realizzato - Biomassa Aerea (AGB)

Land Usev08.00 credits/per_km2

Responsible:Niccolò Calandri

Unrealized Potential — Above-Ground Biomass (AGB)

Overview

The Unrealized Potential — Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) layer quantifies the additional carbon that could be stored in above-ground vegetation (trunks, branches, leaves, bark) if the land were restored to its native vegetation state, expressed in tonnes of carbon per hectare (tC/ha). This metric represents the gap between current AGB carbon stocks and the maximum AGB carbon the landscape could support under natural conditions.

The unrealized potential concept was introduced by Walker et al. (2022), who estimated the global potential for increased carbon storage by comparing current carbon density with the carbon density achievable under native vegetation cover. Areas with high unrealized potential are those where human land use (agriculture, urbanization, degradation) has most reduced above-ground biomass relative to the natural baseline.

This metric is essential for:

Reforestation/afforestation project prioritization — identifies where tree planting yields the greatest AGB carbon gains
Carbon credit potential assessment — quantifies achievable emission removals
Nature-based solutions planning — targets restoration efforts
Landscape-level carbon opportunity mapping — identifies high-impact intervention areas

Calculation Methodology

Random Forest downscaling pipeline for unrealized AGB potential:

Baseline extraction — The Walker et al. 2022 unrealized AGB potential raster is loaded from S3. This represents the difference between natural-state AGB and current AGB.
Feature engineering — NDVI (Sentinel-2), land cover (Dynamic World), elevation (SRTM)
Training — Random Forest regressor on unrealized AGB potential values
Prediction — Model predicts additional achievable AGB at ~200 m
Validation — Cross-validation metrics

Interpretation: A value of 50 tC/ha means the land could store an additional 50 tonnes of above-ground carbon per hectare if restored to native vegetation.

Output unit: tC/ha (additional AGB carbon achievable)

Data Sources

Code	Name	Provider	Type	Coverage	Resolution	Reference Year
Walker 2022	Unrealized Potential (AGB)	Walker et al. / S3	Raster (COG)	Global	~300 m	2016
`COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED`	Sentinel-2 L2A	ESA/Copernicus	Multispectral	Global	10 m	2017 — present
`GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1`	Dynamic World	Google/WRI	Land cover	Global	10 m	2015 — present
`USGS/SRTMGL1_003`	SRTM DEM	NASA/USGS	Elevation	60N-56S	30 m	2000

Quality Range and Levels

Indicator	Unit	Range	Inverted
`carbon_stock_unrealized_potential_agb`	tC/ha	[0, 5, 20, 60, 100, 200]	No

Inverted = No: a higher value indicates greater restoration opportunity for AGB.

Level	Thresholds	Interpretation
E (Very Low)	< 5 tC/ha	Land already near natural AGB capacity
D (Low)	5-20 tC/ha	Minor AGB gain possible through management
C (Moderate)	20-60 tC/ha	Significant AGB gain achievable through reforestation
B (High)	60-100 tC/ha	Large AGB deficit — high restoration priority
A (Very High)	> 100 tC/ha	Heavily deforested land with massive restoration potential

Technical Notes

Unrealized potential assumes restoration to native vegetation; actual carbon gains depend on restoration approach and timeframe
Areas with zero unrealized potential are already at or near their natural AGB capacity
Agricultural lands typically show the highest unrealized AGB potential
Full AGB restoration may take decades to centuries depending on the ecosystem

References

Walker, W.S. et al. (2022). "The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land". PNAS, 119(23), e2111312119.
Spawn, S.A. et al. (2020). "Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010". Scientific Data, 7, Article 112.
Breiman, L. (2001). "Random Forests". Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32.

Data Sources & References

Sources

WRD_CARBN_22

Methodology

Il layer Potenziale Non Realizzato - AGB quantifica il carbonio aggiuntivo che potrebbe essere immagazzinato nella biomassa aerea se il terreno fosse ripristinato alla vegetazione nativa, secondo Walker et al. (2022). Rappresenta la differenza tra la capacita AGB in condizioni naturali e lo stock AGB attuale. Il raster del potenziale viene estratto dal dataset Walker 2022 e raffinato tramite Random Forest con NDVI (Sentinel-2), copertura del suolo (Dynamic World) ed elevazione (SRTM). Valori elevati indicano terreni dove l'uso umano ha maggiormente ridotto la biomassa aerea rispetto al potenziale naturale. Output in tC/ha a ~200 m.