Stock di Carbonio Futuro - Potenziale Totale

Land Usev010.00 credits/per_km2

Responsible:Niccolò Calandri

Future Carbon Stock — Total Potential

Overview

The Future Carbon Stock — Total Potential layer represents the total carbon that an area would hold if fully restored to its native vegetation state, expressed in tC/ha. It is calculated as the sum of current total carbon stock and total unrealized potential:

Future Potential = Current Total + Unrealized Potential Total

This metric answers the question: "What is the maximum carbon density this landscape could achieve under natural conditions?" It represents the theoretical upper bound of carbon storage for each location, determined by climate, soil type, topography, and the native vegetation community that would develop without human land use.

The future potential is useful for:

Setting restoration targets — defines the carbon endpoint for restoration projects
Benchmarking current status — shows how far current stocks are from the natural maximum
Carbon credit permanence — identifies the long-term carbon storage capacity
Ecosystem intactness assessment — areas where current equals future are already at natural capacity

Calculation Methodology

Current total — Sum of all current carbon pools (AGB + BGB + SOC + dead organic matter) from Walker et al. 2022, downscaled via Random Forest
Unrealized potential — Total additional carbon achievable through restoration
Future potential = Current total + Unrealized potential total
Output at ~200 m resolution

Output unit: tC/ha (maximum achievable carbon density)

Data Sources

Code	Name	Provider	Type	Coverage	Resolution	Reference Year
Walker 2022	Global Carbon Density + Potential	Walker et al. / S3	Raster (COG)	Global	~300 m	2016
`COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED`	Sentinel-2 L2A	ESA/Copernicus	Multispectral	Global	10 m	2017 — present
`GOOGLE/DYNAMICWORLD/V1`	Dynamic World	Google/WRI	Land cover	Global	10 m	2015 — present
`USGS/SRTMGL1_003`	SRTM DEM	NASA/USGS	Elevation	60N-56S	30 m	2000

Quality Range and Levels

Indicator	Unit	Range	Inverted
`carbon_stock_future_unrealized_potential`	tC/ha	[0, 15, 50, 120, 200, 400]	No

Level	Thresholds	Interpretation
E (Very Low)	< 15 tC/ha	Inherently low carbon capacity (deserts, extreme environments)
D (Low)	15-50 tC/ha	Arid grasslands, sparse vegetation zones
C (Moderate)	50-120 tC/ha	Temperate grasslands, open woodlands at full potential
B (High)	120-200 tC/ha	Temperate forests, productive grasslands at full potential
A (Very High)	> 200 tC/ha	Tropical forests, peatlands at full natural capacity

Technical Notes

Future potential = current stock + unrealized potential; it represents the natural ceiling
Areas where current stock already equals future potential are ecologically intact
The gap between current and future indicates the total restoration opportunity
Climate change may shift future potential over time as biome boundaries migrate

References

Walker, W.S. et al. (2022). PNAS, 119(23), e2111312119.
Spawn, S.A. et al. (2020). Scientific Data, 7, Article 112.
Breiman, L. (2001). "Random Forests". Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32.

Data Sources & References

Sources

WRD_CARBN_22

Methodology

Il layer Stock di Carbonio Futuro - Potenziale Totale rappresenta il carbonio totale che un'area conterrebbe se completamente ripristinata alla vegetazione nativa. Viene calcolato come somma dello stock di carbonio totale attuale e del potenziale non realizzato totale: Potenziale Futuro = Totale Attuale + Potenziale Non Realizzato. Entrambe le componenti derivano da Walker et al. (2022) e vengono raffinate tramite Random Forest con NDVI (Sentinel-2), copertura del suolo (Dynamic World) ed elevazione (SRTM). Questa metrica definisce il tetto naturale di carbonio per ogni localita e serve come obiettivo di riferimento per progetti di restauro. Output in tC/ha a ~200 m.